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Weekly Market Snapshot

November 24, 2017

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Next week, the economic calendar picks back up and the Senate returns to work on its version of a tax-cut bill. However, the focus is expected to be on Jay Powell’s Fed chair nomination hearing. Powell is unlikely to speak about the near-term policy outlook (what the Fed will do in December), but lawmakers will ask about his broader approach to monetary policy and banking regulation (expect vigorous questioning from Senator Warren, but he should eventually receive approval in a full Senate vote). Components of 3Q17 GDP have been mixed, but we’re likely to see an upward revision to the third quarter growth estimate. Personal income and spending figures will help to fill in the picture of early 4Q17.


Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 23526.18 23458.36 19.04%
NASDAQ 6867.36 6793.29 27.57%
S&P 500 2597.08 2585.64 16.00%
MSCI EAFE 2013.95 1985.58 19.59%
Russell 2000 1516.76 1486.88 11.76%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 4.25 3.50
Fed Funds 1.16 0.41
30-year mortgage 3.96 4.18

Currencies

  Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.331 1.245
Dollars per Euro 1.185 1.055
Japanese Yen per Dollar 111.22 113.33
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.271 1.349
Mexican Peso per Dollar 18.624 20.744

Commodities

  Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 58.02 46.06
Gold 1296.80 1181.00

Bond Rates

  Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 1.72 1.62
10-year treasury 2.33 2.46
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.22 3.14

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/24/2017


As of close of business 11/23/2017


S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/24/2017



As of close of business 11/23/2017


Economic Calendar

November 27  —  New Home Sales (October)
November 28  —  CB Consumer Confidence (November)
 —  Powell Nomination Hearing
November 29  —  Real GDP (3Q17, 2nd estimate)
 —  Pending Home Sales Index (October)
 —  Fed Beige Book
November 30  —  Jobless Claims (week ending November 25)
 —  Personal Income and Spending (October)
December 1  —  ISM Manufacturing Index
 —  Motor Vehicle Sales (November)
December 8  —  Employment Report (November)
December 13  —  Consumer Price Index (November)
 —  FOMC Policy Decision (Yellen press conference)
December 14  —  Retail Sales (November)
December 25  —  Christmas Holiday

 

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and are subject to change. There is no assurance any of the forecasts mentioned will occur or that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. International investing is subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards by country, and possible political and economic risks, which may be greater in emerging markets. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, and state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit. Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY) assumes a 35% tax rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. An investment cannot be made directly in these indexes. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. U.S. government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual total market value of all final goods and services produced domestically by the U.S. The federal funds rate (“Fed Funds”) is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. The prime rate is the underlying index for most credit cards, home equity loans and lines of credit, auto loans, and personal loans. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by financial advisors. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 23, 2017.

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